The test window re-projected over its twelve months on v3: 2,018 OpenStack changes¶

project-windows-openstack-v3.json, from window-report-openstack-v3.json (both new; the projection now writes an artifact and reads the corpus it is given). v3's train window holds 1,645 changes over ten months, captured at 0.952, so 172.9 true changes a month; that rate predicts the dev window at 211 against an actual 214 (-1.3%, inside the 15% tolerance). Over the registered twelve months, fetched at the earliest month the horizon permits (2027-01, captured 0.973), the test window projects to 2,018 changes, replacing the ten-month 1,809 scaled to v3 (1,635). The simulation now reads its test size from this artifact (--projection), not a typed --size.

The 15% tolerance is recorded as what it is: set on 2026-09-16 after the repaired capture model's first check read +11.6%, a post hoc choice. On v3 the miss is well inside any tolerance near it.

v3 leakage, train into dev, at the registered Jaccard 0.7: 0.97% (5 of 515), under the 2% ceiling; the halt check that now runs at 0.7 would pass on the dev window.